Does Galloway’s Bradford victory mean there could be a “London Spring”?

George Galloway’s out of the blue win in Bradford West on Thursday was unprecedented. For a candidate of a minuscule party, with no real connection to a constituency, to turn up a few weeks beforehand and receive more than 50% of the vote is quite remarkable, whoever achieved it, and however it was done.

A large slice of the responsibility for this has to go to the hordes of activists who came out and made it possible for Galloway and, of course, the man himself who has been an outspoken critic of this government and its predecessor for many years.

His leading role in the anti-war movement, combined with his religious views, meant that he was perfect for the specific demographics of Bradford West, in a way that he was not for Glasgow when he stood there last year and achieved just 3.3%, despite his long connection with the city.

However, while it’s true that this by election was an exception rather than a rule, the fact that it was possible at all has given many in the Labour leadership pause for thought. Without belittling the Respect party’s achievement here this was as much a failure of Labour and the Coalition Parties as it was a victory for Galloway.

What’s going on

In the fortnight before the by election we had national controversies over the National Health Service, the Welfare Reform Bill, cash for dinner, pasty-gate and a government led artificially induced fuel crisis. The news has been so full of real, actual news that the fragmentation of the NHS itself has been bumped off the news agenda. That’s all without looking at longer term, but central issues, of war and “austerity”.

So it’s no wonder that turnout was high when there are real things going on right here, right now. Even if you’re a supporter of the government over, say, welfare reform it’s difficult to see how everything else wont have dented your confidence. While Ed Miliband’s supporters have praised his performance these last two weeks the floating voters have been far less convinced that he looks like an opposition politician, let alone leader.

So while the Coalition parties are suffering from a loss of support Labour looks strong nationally. Perhaps Bradford shows that they only look strong in comparison, when an alternative pops up that looks like it can deliver then that Labour support turns out to be extremely soft.

London Spring?

Galloway described his win as a revolutionary “Bradford Spring” and I’m sure it feels like it up north in Yorkshire, but can the same thing happen here in London at, say, the upcoming Assembly and Mayoral elections?

Ken Livingstone’s campaign has a tired feel to it. There can be no doubt that Livingstone is Labour’s candidate in a way that he has felt more independent and less tied in the past. Whether that means there is any other candidate to capture a “London Spring” is quite another matter. While the Greens, Siobhan Benita or even UKIP could, theoretically, capture an anti-establishment mood there isn’t, at this moment, any sense of the kind of political movement that was central to Galloway’s victory in Bradford.

On the Assembly former friends of Galloway are in the race in the form of the socialist slate TUSC.

Nick Wrack, who is standing in the Assembly elections for the group, said “George Galloway’s overwhelming win in Bradford West shows that Labour can no longer take its working-class voters for granted… Millions are facing cuts, unemployment, pay freezes and the privatisation of public services they depend on, while millionaire bankers and bosses continue to pick up massive salaries and bonuses. Why should ordinary people pay for a crisis they didn’t cause? There is a deep discontent with the three-party consensus and this result shows that the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition has a real chance to win seats in the London elections on 3 May. Labour should be prepared for another upset.”

We’ll see if that’s true, but crucially people in Bradford had heard of Galloway long before he turned up on their doorstep, the same cannot, in fairness, be said for TUSC or any of its candidates.

Optimism over experience

All the wise heads, including mine, would have told you that Galloway’s candidacy was a side show and how wrong they were. By building something that felt exciting and meaningful through rallies, public events, and ostentatious displays of rhetoric the campaign was able to overturn all hitherto reasonable expectations.

There’s just under five weeks left until polling day and no-one appears to be pulling those kinds of tricks but, I suspect, with the votes of  all three “main” parties particularly vulnerable right now the key thing for anyone wanting to pull a London Spring would be to turn your campaign into an event people cannot fail to notice and make sure, whether your eyes are on the Assembly or the Mayor’s chair itself you bin the Ken and Boris show and make the election about you.

Good luck with that!