London Assembly 2012: the Liberal Democrat woes

In the latest in our series on the problems facing London’s four main parties in the coming Assembly elections we take  a look at the difficulties the Liberal Democrats will be facing come May. You can see our take on the Tory and Labour campaigns, and the final piece in the series, on the Greens, will come tomorrow.

Liberal Democrats: Mayoral candidate Brian Paddick

In post-riot London having a liberal ex-police officer as their candidate probably seemed like a great idea. Paddick may have been a very poor Mayoral candidate last time round but in large part it was his lack of experience in the political jungle that let him down.

Having been there once before, it’s quite possible he’ll be much improved this time around. It’s certainly unlikely that this time he’ll be branded a toxic hazard in effigy, unlike in 2008.

Certainly the Liberal Democrat Assembly Members are constructive and intelligent politicians who bring genuine added value to the Assembly but, as the public have no idea who their Assembly Members are, this may not be as helpful as it first sounds.

Problem one: they’re doomed

Whatever they do, however good their campaign is, no matter how brilliant their team is the Liberal Democrats at this election are doomed. 

The polls have consistently showed that support for the Liberal Democrat has bottomed out. We’re not talking about a blip in the polls either but a two year hate-a-thon where left leaning, urban Liberal Democrat voters have felt utterly betrayed by the party and would rather stick pins in their eyes than vote for their former brand choice. That’s the London Lib Dem vote  in a nutshell as the more right leaning rural Lib Dem voters don’t, by definition live in London.

Internally the optimistic message is that if they fight really, really hard they might just retain the same number of Assembly seats. The reality is that if the party pulls out all the stops, fights a blinding fight and has a couple of lucky breaks they might still get wiped out entirely. Under those circumstances even the cheeriest of Liberal Democrat leafleters must give a little bit of a sigh as they pin on their rosette and slink out into the world.

Problem two: Brian Paddick

Despite what I said earlier Brian Paddick does not look like nor sound like the Mayor of London. He’s had four years to immerse himself in London politics but instead has spent his time flirting with the shallowest end of the media circuit. So characterless has he proved himself to be that he appeared *naked* on that get me out of here program and people *still* don’t know who he is.

More importantly he does not know his stuff on London, which is frankly shameful. When you consider the high quality of the Lib Dem Assembly Members it must be galling for them to be represented by someone who is simply unable to master his brief.

I went to see the Feminista 2011 hustings late last year, the first Mayoral hustings of the race in fact. Paddick consistently answered questions saying that the issue should be investigated and taken seriously when, had he taken those issues seriously he would have already known the answers. He looked weak with nothing to say, that’s unlikely to change.

Problem three: they wont win the Mayor

For Labour and the Conservatives the main question is winning the Mayoralty. They can take a shift in Assembly seats either way as long as they get to sit in the big chair.

For the Liberal Democrats (and the Greens) the race is all about the Assembly list vote. That means that apart from getting a warm and fuzzy feeling doing well on the Mayoral and constituency ballot papers is, largely, irrelevant.  Which is a shame because the majority of the people voting, and for most of the journalists reporting on the election, it’s all  about the Mayor – so the Lib Dems and Greens have to pretend it is too in order to collect the ricochet votes onto the list.

It’s one of the problems with the electoral system we have that even though list votes genuinely count for the smallest two of the big four parties, people still need convincing that it makes any difference. The Lib Dems may well struggle to do that.

Partly because everyone will think no one else is voting for them, so why bother even if you were tempted. Partly because in every Mayoral debate half the audience will be thinking who are these jokers on the stage with Ken and Boris? And partly because the election is mediated through the Mayoral vote so every good suggestion the Lib Dems come up with that they could actually get implemented through their Assembly Members will always be undermined by the thought that it’s all just posturing from a party that won’t win Mayor.

It’s not an insurmountable problem, but under these circumstances it’s a mill stone of epic proportions. I don’t envy them one bit.