London Assembly 2012: what are Labour’s weaknesses?

In the second of this week’s series on the London Assembly elections we take a look at the electoral weaknesses the Labour Party will have to overcome if they are to win in May. You can read the analysis of the Conservative weak points here, tomorrow the Liberal Democrats and the Greens get the Big Smoke treatment on Friday.

 The Labour Party: Mayoral candidate Ken Livingstone

Contrary to the media myth Ken Livingstone did not lose the Mayoralty in 2008 because Londoners were “sick of him”. The good news for Ken is that he has increased the numbers voting for him every time he’s stood (776,427 votes in 2000, 828,380 votes in 2004 and 1,028,966 votes in 2008). The bad news is that his best ever performance was not good enough last time and he’ll have to at least match it to win in 2012.

No tall order beating your personal best, but that’s where the bar is because if anyone is counting on Boris Johnson’s vote declining dramatically then they may be in for a little shock.

Problem one: the Labour Party

Just as Johnson needs to avoid getting labelled a Tory Mr Livingstone needs to avoid getting too closely associated with his tribe without actually alienating the center and right of the party who he needs to work their socks off if London is to hoist the red flag over city hall once again.

On one level that sounds fairly easy to do. Livingstone is an idiosyncratic and successful politician in his own right. Few people think of Ken as anything but an independent minded politician. He won the Mayoralty in 2000 as an independent and it has been the case for some time that Labour need him more than he needs them – but this is a battle where he needs everyone opposed to Boris’ re-election to get behind him members and non-members alike.

That means those Labour members nervous of Livingstone’s loyalties will need to be persuaded he’s a tribalist despite, for example, his words of praise for the ultimately successful independent candidate for the Tower Hamlet’s Mayoralty against the official Labour candidate. However, there’s a problem. In all three Mayoral elections so far the successful candidate has always required the second preferences from other parties to win – that means any overly tribal campaign wont generate the kind of second preferences that successful Mayoral candidates have always required in the past.

That’s not going to be an easy trick to pull off in an election where the anti-Boris rhetoric of 2008 simply wont wash. Ken doesn’t just need support from all sides, he needs enthusiasm if he’s to take back the throne.

Problem two: the press

The press are unlikely to run the vitriolic anti-Ken campaign that we saw last time. The Evening Standard has apologised and now he’s not actually running anything Ken feels much more cuddly than he was. Sadly what the press are likely to do is to paint Ken as a clapped out old man of the past.

This is unfair and wrong of them, but if they can make the label stick then will it be possible to mobilise more than a million Londoners to vote for him? Any Red Ken baiting will probably work in Livingstone’s favour as it will drum up passion in an election where the candidates from the three largest parties are the same people as last time and the Greens have someone who’s been an Assembly Member for twelve years. Not very hot stuff.

Unless Team Ken can create enough, credible, spice they simply won’t be able to generate the required momentum.

That doesn’t mean the messages need to be dazzling, a London moon rocket or some such. Fair Fares works. Ken is Mr. Fares and people care about the cost of travel deeply. Even though there’s an element of nostalgia to the issue, harking back to the eighties, it’s a good hook – but will the press, specifically, buy it?

Ken opponents say the sums don’t add up. Well Livingstone is in luck because even the Londoners who actually are accountants aren’t going to look at the books, they’ll just go with who they want to believe (either way). However, if the Labour group on the Assembly don’t submit a budget amendment reducing fares that actually adds up then their credibility with opinion formers will be shot and that has a domino effect into the population.

Problem three: the Labour Party, again

The previous problem was one of mobilising supporters inside and outside of the party alike. This problem is around the difficulties that the national party will create for Ken. I know many people outside of London in Labour may find it hard to believe but Livingstone is a far, far more popular politician than Ed Miliband is or that Ed Balls ever could be.

Even if they keep their oar out of the campaign they’ll still be wandering around making announcements like they admire Margaret Thatcher or that Labour is much better at cuts than the Tories. Ken’s big selling points of a radical politician, who knows his brief (London) back to front and has a history of real achievement stands in stark contrast to the thin and pasty clique at the head of the party nationally.

While many Londoners would choose Ken whatever party badge he was standing under the two Eds will be metaphorically sitting on his campaign disillusioning members, making jarring off message economic statements and generally adding a shade of grey to the inspiring picture Ken’s Team will be trying to paint. And for those who agree with the Eds they’re probably Ken’s least loyal supporters who wouldn’t believe him even if he swore an oath on a stack of Bibles that he finds Miliband a titan among men.

I recommend Ken spreads a rumour that he once punched Ed Balls’ lights out and then goes on telly to deny it with a mischievous twinkle in his eye. We’ll know that even though it probably didn’t happen it damn well should have which deserves at least a second preference in May.